Israel Election Exit Polls: Likud Leads, but No Bloc Reaches 61

What happened

Israel’s general election ended without a clear winner, at least according to the first exit polls. When voting closed at 10 p.m. local time on Tuesday, Oct. 27, the main TV channels projected that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud would again be the largest party, with 24 or 25 seats, Israel Hayom reported. Yashar, the party led by former army chief Gadi Eisenkot, came second with 21 to 23.

Being first is not enough. A government needs the backing of 61 of the Knesset’s 120 members, and the exit polls show neither camp getting there. Netanyahu’s bloc sits at about 50 seats, while the parties trying to replace him total 50 to 53, according to The Jerusalem Post. Arab-led parties, which neither camp has embraced as a partner, are projected to win 17 or 18.

Exit polls are projections, not results. The Central Elections Committee started counting after polls closed, and The Times of Israel notes that official tallies often differ from the early numbers. Certified results are due Nov. 4.

The Israel election exit polls, channel by channel

Four channels released polls. Three broadly agree; Channel 14 is the outlier and gives Likud and its allies far more.

Source: Israel Hayom. Channel 14 listed Hadash at 10 instead of the Joint List.

Kan’s bloc totals were 53 for Eisenkot’s side, 50 for Netanyahu’s and 17 for Arab parties. Channel 12 had 52, 50 and 18, which The Times of Israel called a record for Arab-led parties. Channel 14 put the right-wing bloc at 60, still one short.

Why the math is so hard

Israel elects parties, not candidates. Seats are split in proportion to the national vote, and any list under 3.25% gets nothing, Al Jazeera explains. That is why a few small parties matter so much tonight. Channel 12 projected that two of them, the Reservists and People of Israel, would miss the threshold. If a party just under the line gets over it in the real count, it takes roughly three or four seats from everyone else.

Here is the simple arithmetic. On the Kan numbers, Netanyahu’s bloc needs 11 more seats and the opposition needs eight. The only large group outside both blocs is the Arab-led parties, and most opposition leaders have ruled out a government with them; the Democrats’ Yair Golan is the exception, The Jerusalem Post reports. Eisenkot has also refused to serve under Netanyahu, even in a rotation deal. That leaves a few paths: a deal nobody has promised, a minority government that survives with outside support, or another election.

Likud’s slide is also worth noticing. It won 32 seats in 2022, according to Al Jazeera. The exit polls put it seven or eight seats lower, though still in first place.

Record turnout and a tense night

Turnout reached its highest level in decades. About 74.3% of roughly 7.3 million eligible voters had cast ballots by 8 p.m., the Jewish Telegraphic Agency reported, citing the Central Elections Committee; JTA compared that with 66.3% in 2022. Lines at some polling places stretched past an hour.

This is the first national vote since Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, attack, and the opposition has cast it as a verdict on how Netanyahu handled the wars that followed in Gaza, Lebanon and with Iran. It is also the first vote in 38 years held at the natural end of a full Knesset term, according to Al Jazeera. Netanyahu, who is on trial on corruption charges that he denies, told supporters the fight could not be left “in the hands of the left and the Arab parties,” JTA reported. Eisenkot said his side was “setting Israel on a new path.”

The night also brought accusations. Netanyahu accused the left and Arab parties of trying to steal the election, while Eisenkot accused him of preparing to contest the result, The Times of Israel reported. Likud filed 775 fraud complaints with the elections committee, according to a Jerusalem Post headline, and the committee turned down its request to keep polls open longer. A rights group for Arab citizens, Adalah, separately complained about officials it said were inciting against Arab voters, JTA reported.

What happens next

Herzog does not have to choose the leader of the biggest party, Israel Hayom notes. If he names someone by Nov. 11 and the full extension is used, coalition talks could run until about Dec. 23. Netanyahu stays on as caretaker prime minister until a new government is sworn in, Al Jazeera reports.

Quick answers

Who won the Israel election?

No one yet. Exit polls show Likud as the largest party, but no bloc has the 61 seats needed to govern. Certified results are due Nov. 4.

Who is Gadi Eisenkot?

He is a former Israeli army chief who leads the Yashar party and is the opposition’s likeliest candidate for prime minister. He has said he will not serve under Netanyahu.

Is Netanyahu still prime minister?

Yes. He remains prime minister, as caretaker, until a new government wins a Knesset vote and is sworn in.