Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in a Dead Heat

What happened

Brazil picks its next president on Sunday, Oct. 25, in a runoff between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, and the last round of polling suggests nobody can call it in advance. Datafolha’s final survey, released Thursday, showed the two tied at 50% each of valid votes, according to The Rio Times’ poll tracker, which put the average of 20 pollsters’ latest numbers at 51% for Bolsonaro and 49% for Lula.

The runoff was needed because neither man cleared 50% in the Oct. 4 first round. Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, finished first with about 47% of valid votes to Lula’s roughly 45%, Al Jazeera reported. Most polls had expected Lula to come out ahead in that round.

Why everyone is watching

Latin America’s largest country is choosing between two very different directions. Lula, 80, is a former union worker who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010 and returned in 2023; he is seeking a fourth, non-consecutive term, the Associated Press notes. Bolsonaro, 45, became a candidate in December after his father named him, according to HNGN, and the AP describes him as a Trump ally who carries on his father’s hard-right agenda in a softer tone.

The father is not on the ballot. Jair Bolsonaro is barred from running and is confined at home while serving 27 years for a coup attempt that followed his 2022 loss to Lula, the AP reports. Flávio has pledged to seek an amnesty for his father, Al Jazeera reported.

There is a U.S. angle too. The Trump administration hit Brazilian goods with 50% tariffs last year and pointed to Jair Bolsonaro’s trial as one reason, and Lula has made national sovereignty a campaign theme, the AP says. A Bolsonaro win would add Brazil to a list of Trump-friendly governments in the region that includes Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica and Peru.

The numbers

Vote counts are from Al Jazeera’s Oct. 16 report; the newer polls are from The Rio Times’ tracker.

What the math says

Subtract the first-round totals and Bolsonaro’s lead comes to about 2.22 million votes. That sounds like a lot, but three other figures put it in perspective:

• The also-rans: Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos together drew about 5.3 million votes, more than twice the gap, and both have said they won’t endorse either finalist, according to Al Jazeera.
• The no-shows: voting is compulsory in Brazil, yet more than 33 million people, about 21% of the electorate, skipped the first round, the AP reports. They can still vote Sunday. That pool is roughly 15 times the size of Bolsonaro’s lead.
• The polling miss: surveys underestimated Bolsonaro by about five points in the first round, HNGN noted, so a one- or two-point poll lead is well inside the range of error.

For comparison, Lula beat Jair Bolsonaro by 1.8 points in 2022, HNGN noted, so another finish this close would not be new.

Who says what

Bolsonaro’s pitch centers on crime. His platform includes building El Salvador-style mega-prisons, labeling transnational gangs as terrorist groups and trying defendants as young as 16 as adults, the AP reports. He also promises lower taxes. He has acknowledged that banker Daniel Vorcaro gave millions of dollars toward a movie about Jair Bolsonaro, and he is under investigation for corruption, money laundering and tax evasion tied to that case, according to the AP.

Lula’s pitch leans on his economic record: a 15% increase in Bolsa Família payments, cuts to fuel taxes and an income tax exemption for people earning up to 5,000 reais a month. The Senate also approved government-backed rules cutting the maximum workweek from 44 to 40 hours with two rest days and no pay cut. His approval rating fell as low as 24% at one point this term amid worries about crime and the cost of living, the AP says.

What happens next

Polls are open from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Brasília time Sunday, which is 7 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET. Brazil votes on electronic machines, so the Superior Electoral Court typically names a winner a few hours after voting ends, HNGN reports. Almost 160 million people are eligible.

States to watch, based on Datafolha’s state polls cited by HNGN: São Paulo (Bolsonaro 48%, Lula 45%), Rio de Janeiro (Bolsonaro 51%, Lula 42%) and Minas Gerais (Lula 48%, Bolsonaro 44%). Minas Gerais has sided with the eventual winner in each presidential vote since 1989. Governors in five states and the Federal District are also on Sunday’s runoff ballot.

Quick answers

When will Brazil’s runoff results be known?

Polls close at 4 p.m. ET Sunday, and because the count is electronic, a winner is usually clear within a few hours.

Why isn’t Jair Bolsonaro running?

He is barred from office and is confined at home, serving 27 years for trying to overturn his 2022 defeat. His son Flávio is running in his place.

Who is ahead in the Brazil runoff polls?

No one clearly. Most recent polls give Flávio Bolsonaro a narrow lead, Datafolha shows a tie and at least one poll has Lula slightly ahead, all within the margins of error.