Hurricane Trudy Skirts Mexico’s Coast, Expected to Weaken Fast

What happened

Hurricane Trudy spent Sunday, Oct. 18, running parallel to Mexico’s Pacific coast without coming ashore. At 8 a.m. MST (11 a.m. ET), the National Hurricane Center had it as a Category 2 storm with 100 mph sustained winds, centered about 115 miles southwest of Cabo Corrientes in Jalisco and 165 miles west of Manzanillo, Newsweek reports. It was drifting northwest at about 8 mph.

Even without a landfall, Trudy pushed heavy rain and strong gusts into Jalisco, Colima and Michoacán. The Mexican navy shut the ports of Puerto Vallarta, Manzanillo, Lázaro Cárdenas and Puerto Escondido to all ship traffic and closed several others to small boats.

As of Sunday morning, neither Trudy nor Typhoon Champi in the western Pacific had been tied to any deaths, according to HNGN. No major damage had been reported in the coverage we reviewed.

Hurricane Trudy’s up-and-down week

When we first wrote about Trudy on Friday, forecasters thought it could grow into a Category 4. It didn’t. Here’s how the storm actually behaved, based on reporting from HNGN, FOX Weather, Reuters and Newsweek:

FOX Weather noted that satellite data later showed the Friday peak was weaker than first estimated.

Why rain is the main threat now

Trudy’s strongest winds are packed close to its center. Hurricane-force winds reach out only about 30 miles, while tropical-storm-force winds stretch up to 105 miles, according to Newsweek’s summary of the hurricane center’s advisory. With the eye staying offshore, most of the coast felt the weaker outer winds.

Rain is a different story. The hurricane center expects 2 to 6 more inches in Jalisco, with isolated storm totals around 12 inches, and warns of possible life-threatening flooding and mudslides on steep slopes. Outer rain bands could drop 1 to 2 inches on northern Colima and southern Nayarit.

The ground was already soaked. Colima officials said the wind risk was low but that rain alone could cause damage because successive Pacific storms have saturated the soil, the Associated Press reported. HNGN lists Hurricane Simon among the earlier storms that drenched the region.

Along the shore, the hurricane center warned of storm surge and damaging waves wherever winds blow onshore, plus dangerous surf and rip currents.

Which warnings are still up

Mexico scaled back its alerts as Trudy pulled away. The stretch from Playa Pérula to Cabo Corrientes was downgraded from a hurricane warning, and the coast south of Playa Pérula is no longer under any alert, according to Newsweek. A tropical storm warning remains from Playa Pérula north to San Blas, which includes the Puerto Vallarta area, and for the Islas Marías.

What happens next

The hurricane center expects Trudy’s center to move away from mainland Mexico, turn west-northwest Sunday night and pass south of Baja California Sur on Monday and Tuesday, Oct. 19 and 20. “Rapid weakening is forecast to begin by tonight,” the center said Sunday, per Reuters.

Things to watch:

• Flooding and mudslides in Jalisco and Colima as the last rain bands move through.
• Port reopenings in Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo once the navy lifts its closures.
• A new system: The hurricane center gives a low expected to form well off southern Mexico an 80% chance of becoming a tropical depression within seven days, possibly around midweek.

This has been an extraordinarily active eastern Pacific season. FOX Weather reports it has passed 2018 as the most energetic on record, at more than 319 units of accumulated cyclone energy, a measure that adds up storms’ strength and duration. The Atlantic is the opposite: Isaias is the lone hurricane among nine named storms so far, and its energy total is 83% below normal, Newsweek reports.

Across the Pacific, Guam just had a close call of its own. Read our explainer on Super Typhoon Champi.

Quick answers

Did Hurricane Trudy make landfall in Mexico?

No. Through Sunday, Oct. 18, Trudy’s center stayed offshore while tracking parallel to the coast of Colima and Jalisco. It is forecast to move out to sea and pass south of Baja California Sur.

Is Puerto Vallarta safe from Hurricane Trudy?

The area remains under a tropical storm warning, and the port was closed to ship traffic Sunday. Heavy rain and rough surf are the main risks; follow local civil protection guidance and stay out of the ocean.

Will Trudy hit Cabo San Lucas or Baja California?

The forecast takes Trudy south of Baja California Sur on Monday and Tuesday while it weakens quickly. It could become a post-tropical low by Tuesday night.